XGID=--aABCBBB-------c--bbCbcb-:1:1:1:65:3:0:0:9:10
Match Play. Red leads 3-0 to 7. How should Red play 65?
This is easy to get wrong if you don’t think about it for a minute or two.
8/3, 8/2* leaves White needing a two followed by a six to escape Red’s prime. 21/10 leaves White needing a one followed by a six. Apparently very similar, but actually not.
After the hitting play Red has three checkers all on one point trapped behind a three-point partial prime and rolls with one, twos and fives (particularly 55) can cause problems.
After 21/10 Red should have no such problems. Also, and very importantly, after 21/10 by forcing him to play, White has some anti-joker rolls such as 65.
These two variations make 8/3, 8/2* a triple blunder. That play wins 8% fewer games and loses 2.5% more gammons – truly a terrible play.
The motto, “when in doubt, hit’ does not apply here!
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