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Match Play. Red leads 3-1 to 5. How should Red play 53?
Is it better to lose quietly avoiding a gammon, or try to win? Each position is different, of course, but it is a question of weighing up the risks and rewards. By playing 18/13, 18/15 Red leaves eight dangerous shots but in return he gains great outer board coverage.
13/8, 11/8 is very safe but it costs Red 13% game (and match) winning chances. That is too much. The bold play costs 11% extra gammons but even though those gammons cost Red the match the bold play must be made.
13/8, 11/8 is a mistake that borders on the edge of an error. Never forget the wise words of Carl von Clausewitz.
“Given the same amount of intelligence, timidity will do a thousand times more damage than audacity”