2021 - Position 141
Updated: Aug 20
Match Play. Red trails 0-3 to 5. How should Red play 41?
For money 8/3 is correct but at this score it should clear that hitting is right as a gammon gets Red to the Crawford Game.
What surprised me was the equity difference between 6/1* and 8/4, 2/1*. The latter play wins 2% more games and 2% more gammons. I believe this is down to (a) how combinations of big numbers play next turn (especially fives) and (b) to the fact that 8/4, 2/1* achieves one more crossover.
According to a long rollout 6/1* is very nearly a blunder – an amazing result.