2020 - Position 43

XGID=-a-B-BC-B-A-bCb--cBdab----:0:0:1:66:0:0:3:0:10

Money Play. How should Red play 66?

The wrong idea here is 13/7(3), 10/4, despite the duplication of 3’s.

Red has the choice of creating a broken prime with 13/7(2), 8/2(2) or blitzing with 13/1(2)*. The rollouts have it too close to call.

If the cube had already been turned then 13/1(2)* would be very clear because of the gammons won.

However, here it is a question of getting to an efficient cube turn. That is why 13/7(3), 10/4 is so wrong. When White doesn’t roll a 3 Red has gone way beyond his doubling point but if White does roll the 3 Red will regret the play. Red does much better with the other two plays as they potentially give White a much more difficult doubling decision.