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2019 - Position 221


XGID=-BBBaBB-A--A-Ac--bAbcbbA--:1:1:1:21:4:4:0:7:10


Match Play 4-4 to 7. How should Red play 21?


A banana split is definitely required or else White will have an easy run home. The question is how big a play to make?


Over the board I chose 6/5, 6/4* but that play is not big enough. Any entering number by White is likely to be good enough.


Red has to play for a closeout and the best way to do that is 13/11, 5/4*. If White fans once Red will reasonable chance of winning the game and perhaps even a gammon. Even with that play Red only wins a third of the time and a high percentage of his losses will be gammon whatever he does so he may as well go for broke.


Any play other than 13/11, 5/4* an error and my play was very nearly a blunder.

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