2023 - Position 71
Updated: Apr 21
Match Play. Red leads 3-2 to 7. Should Red redouble? If redoubled, should White take?
This position is very volatile so doubling should be considered. Is Red too good? Certainly not. He will win some gammons but not enough to justify playing on. If Red rolls a three he may well become too good, but any other number will leave White with plenty of chances. (Look at Red’s double sixes.) Red should redouble.
Players often underestimate how difficult it is to bring this type of position home. One hit by White could prove fatal. If White drops the cube he will have 23% winning chances. Does he do better by taking and redoubling to four?
It may surprise you, but the answer is yes. The rollouts have him winning nearly 29% of the time so it is a very easy take and dropping is a huge blunder. Not doubling as Red is a bad error but not quite a blunder.
This is not an easy problem, and it is worth rolling it out manually a few times to get a good understanding of how it plays out.