2023 - Position 46
Updated: Mar 14
Match Play. Red leads 9-8 to 11. Should Red double? If doubled, should White take?
This position comes from my recent UKBGF online match against Raj Jansari. One thing I have learnt recently is not to be afraid to double at 2-away vs 3-away. At that score you are only a 59/60% favourite.
There are two questions here. Should I play for an undoubled gammon and if I double should Raj take?
For money this is a clear pass because of the gammons but in fact Red only wins a gammon 11% of the time and there is much work to be done. Playing on for the gammon is clearly wrong.
White needs 25% to take this double. He has an automatic redouble on his next roll.
Raj judged he had the necessary 25% but his timing is suspect, and the rollout shows he has only 23% winning chances. He took and redoubled but I won without too much excitement. Taking is a triple blunder.