2023 - Position 158
Updated: Oct 2
Match Play. 0-0 to 5. Should Red redouble to 8? If redoubled, should White take?
If White passes he will have 15% match winning chances. Does he have 15% chances here? The cube will be dead so no need to worry about any future cube action. For money would be a massive pass due to the live cube.
Red has 7 crossovers to go, White has 10 but there is also the hitting to consider. Red has fifteen shots this turn but after that things get complex because of the possibility of hits on subsequent turns. Note also that the big doubles will win for Red. Over the board the calculations would be impossible and even in one’s study there are too many variations.
I would have estimated White’s winning chances to be about 10% but they are very nearly 15%.
Technically this is a pass but against a much stronger opponent you should take.