2023 - Position 137

XGID=-EDaCB--a----a-----bcbbab-:1:1:1:00:4:1:0:7:10

Match Play. Blue leads 4-1 to 7. Should Blue redouble? If redoubled, should White take?

Never be afraid to put the match on the line if the odds are in your favour.

Firstly, Blue is not quite good enough to play on for the gammon. He needs twelve crossovers to win a gammon. White needs seven to save the gammon.

If White were to drop the redouble, he would trail 1-6 with around 10% winning chances. If he takes and redoubles, will he win more than 10% of the time? Blue will leave a shot on 8 numbers and get hit about 2.5 times. That is only about 7% of the time.

However, there will be some repeat shots on the next roll and there are always some slim racing chances. XG gives White’s overall winning chances at 11.4% so technically White has a take.

Blue must double because many Whites would drop and if he does take Blue wins 88.6% of the time. Not redoubling is quite a bad error while passing as White is only a tiny mistake.