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2022 - Position 44

  • Writer: Chris Bray
    Chris Bray
  • Mar 9, 2022
  • 1 min read

Updated: Mar 10, 2022



XGID=-BaBB-CBB----------AadddaA:2:1:1:00:0:0:0:7:10


Match Play. 0-0 to 7. Should Red redouble to 8? If redoubled, should White take?


Firstly, not redoubling is a blunder. The position is not too good to double. Even if Red hits a blot white has plenty of scrambling chances


If White drops the redouble then he has 24% winning chances according to the Janowski formula. After a redouble, gammons and the cube will be meaningless so can White win more than 24% of the time from here?


If Red fans (25%) White has excellent chances and it will be Red who is under pressure. An entering six without a hit will put pressure on Red to perform. Finally, if he does hit a blot then White may anchor and still prove a nuisance.


White’s main chances come from When Red fans. As that 25% figure is very close to his required 24% this is probably a take.


A rollout shows that White wins 25.5% of the time which indicates a close take. Dropping is an error but nowhere near a blunder. Of course, the above assumes equal playing strengths. If there is a big skill disparity, then the doubling actions need to be tuned to accommodate that.





 
 
 

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