2022 - Position 44

XGID=-BaBB-CBB----------AadddaA:2:1:1:00:0:0:0:7:10

Match Play. 0-0 to 7. Should Red redouble to 8? If redoubled, should White take?

Firstly, not redoubling is a blunder. The position is not too good to double. Even if Red hits a blot white has plenty of scrambling chances

If White drops the redouble then he has 24% winning chances according to the Janowski formula. After a redouble, gammons and the cube will be meaningless so can White win more than 24% of the time from here?

If Red fans (25%) White has excellent chances and it will be Red who is under pressure. An entering six without a hit will put pressure on Red to perform. Finally, if he does hit a blot then White may anchor and still prove a nuisance.

White’s main chances come from When Red fans. As that 25% figure is very close to his required 24% this is probably a take.

A rollout shows that White wins 25.5% of the time which indicates a close take. Dropping is an error but nowhere near a blunder. Of course, the above assumes equal playing strengths. If there is a big skill disparity, then the doubling actions need to be tuned to accommodate that.