2022 - Position 4

XGID=-CbCBB-----------a-bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:21:2:2:0:5:10

Match Play. 2-2 to 5. How should Red play 21?

This is virtually impossible to calculate accurately over the board. Do the extra gammon wins from 3/off compensate for the additional losses incurred when Red leaves shots, sometimes double shots?

The rollout shows that 3/off swaps 4.5% extra gammon wins for 1.5% extra losses making 3/off correct but 5/4, 5/3 is only a 0.012 error.

Over the board I played 3/off and just won a gammon, so my one game rollout was a success!