2022 - Position 145

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Match Play. Red trails 4-5 to 7. Should Red double? If doubled, should White take?

This score is well-known. White needs 28% to take the double. Does he have it? It’s impossible to calculate over the board and so you need to go on past experience while noting the Red is likely to leave at least one shot (look at 64 for Red).

The answer from the rollout is that White wins from here just under 30% of the time and so has a comfortable take of Red’s very obvious double. For money this is a very easy take because of the redoubling potential but the pressure of the match situation may well lead to some erroneous drops by White.