Search
  • Chris Bray

2022 - Position 101

Updated: Jun 30



XGID=-AAA------------------aa--:1:1:1:00:1:4:0:7:10


Match Play. Red trails 1-4 to 7. Should Red redouble? If redoubled, should White take?


A problem that lends itself to direct calculation.


Red will win this position 5/36 (when he rolls 22, 33, 44, 55 or 66) plus 31/36 x 11/36.


5/36 = 13.9 and 31/36 x 11/36 = 341/1296 = 26.5. the total is 40.4% so for working purposes let’s use 40%.


If Red doesn’t redouble then 40% of the time he will win and trail 3-4 (40% winning chances from match equity tables). That gives 40% x 40% = 16%. 60% of the time he will lose and trail 1-6 (10% winning chances). 60% x 10% = 6%. Total winning chances = 16% + 6% = 22%


If Red does redouble then 40% of the time, he will lead 5-4 (60% winning chances). 40% x 60% = 24%


Ergo, by a small margin (2%) Red increases his winning chances by redoubling.


An XG rollout confirms that Red should redouble but it is very, very close. Obviously White must take the redouble.

102 views1 comment

Recent Posts

See All