2021 - Position 79

XGID=-aDBC-------aa--a-bbcbb--A:0:0:1:21:4:4:0:5:10

Match Play. Double Match Point. How should Red play 21?

To hit or not to hit?

If Red hits White will stay on the bar 25% of the time and then Red will have a chance to escape. If Red does not hit, then he will be attacked with pretty much any number that hits and then Red will need two numbers to escape (enter then escape).

Red does better to take his chances given with the first scenario. If he hits and White rolls an ace, then Red might anchor and win from there.

Overall Red increase his winning chances by 3% if he hits.