2021 - Position 77
Updated: Apr 27
Match Play. Red leads 3-0 to 5. Should Red double? If doubled, should White take?
If White drops he will have 15% match-winning chances from 0-4 down. So that is the benchmark.
If he takes, redoubles next turn and wins then he will lead 4-3 (Crawford) and be at 70%. Therefore, to take needs to solve the equation 70 x match-winning chances = 15%. Therefore, he needs to win this game about 21.5% of the time. Does he have enough to take? Can he win just over one game in five?
Red should be off in five or six rolls after he enters. White will take eight rolls unless he rolls a big double. So White needs Red to fan a couple of times to give him realistic winning chances. Also, White will have to play carefully – he can’t afford to be hit.
Without rollouts it would be difficult to be sure. For money this is a skinny take because of the redouble potential but here White will already have redoubled. That pushes the position into drop territory and taking is a blunder.