2021 - Position 192

XGID=a--BB-CBB---cB---ccbcA--A-:2:-1:1:54:5:7:0:11:10

Match Play. Red trails 5-7 to 11. How should Red play 54?

This is very close and for money there is no difference between 7/2, 6/2 and 21/16, 13/9.

At this score a gammon win for Red creates overage (too many points won) and that makes it an inefficient play. That is just enough to swing the answer to 21/16, 13/9 but 7/2, 6/2 is only a tiny mistake.

Over the board it would be impossible to determine the correct play and so you would have to go with your gut instinct. As noted before you can’t possibly make the correct play every time. The key to winning backgammon is to avoid making blunders (or worse). Here you have to move 13/4 to wander into blunder territory.