2021 - Position 181

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Match Play. Red leads 3-0 to 11. How should Red play 55?

When in doubt, hit. The pretty play is 21/16(2), 21/11, solving most of Red’s problems and leading to a win with the cube next turn if the blot on the bar-point is not hit.

However, 21/16, 8/3(2), 7/2* leads to the same percentage of wins but a much higher gammon count. Any play other than that is a blunder.