2021 - Position 164
Updated: Oct 1
Match Play. 0-0 to 5. How should Red play 31?
Over the board bar/24, 8/5 was played but that was the wrong game plan. Red is only 19 pips behind (fewer if he hits) so committing to a back game now is too negative.
The choice is between bar/24/21 and bar/24, 21/18*. A very long rollout produced an equity difference of 0.005 so for all intents and purposes the two plays are identical and you can take your choice. The key lesson here is not to steer for a back game too early. Here there is plenty of play for Red whichever of the other game plans he chooses.