2021- Position 118

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Match Play. Red leads 7-5 to 9. How should Red play 65?

The relatively passive bar/20/14 wins 94% of the time (I’m amazed White wins 6% of the time!).

Bar/20, 7/1* only wins 84% of the time but gammon wins go up from 45% to 70%. The maths is straightforward. The extra gammons win the day by a long way so bar/20, 7/1* is correct.