2021 - Position 111
Updated: Jul 1, 2021
Match Play. Red leads 3-2 to 5. Should Red double? If doubled, should White take?
A score that is often misunderstood. If Red doubles, and White takes, White will redouble next turn and put the match on the line. If White drops the double he will have precisely 25% winning chances so the key question is can White win 25 % of the time from here?
He has a 36-pip lead in the race and the stronger (for the moment) home board. Can he escape often enough to justify taking? Without computers it would be impossible to tell but Red has only three real builders for his 4-pt so White has some time.
The answer is that White wins just under 27% of the time from here and therefore he should take but it is close.
Of course, it is monster double because of the volatility. Note that if White cannot escape his rear checker his forward position will collapse very quickly.
Clear double, skinny take.