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Match Play. Red trails 4-10 to 13. How should Red play 51?
Fives don’t grow on trees! Red needs to release one of his checkers on White’s 2-pt with 23/18. After that the one is forced, 10/9. This may look risky because White can attack the remaining blot but White needs four 4s to escape his rear checkers.
It may look as if Red has plenty of time to escape his rear checkers but playing 23/18 more or less guarantees he can hold his forward structure. Anything other than 23/18, 10/9 is a triple blunder or worse.