2020 - Position 81

XGID=-CBDBbB---------Baababbbb-:1:-1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

Money Play. How should Red play 21?

This is a balance between trying to get the Red outfield checkers home safely while at the same time preparing to hit White if he runs a checker out. It is not merely a question of minimising immediate shots. Playing completely safe with 3/2, 3/1 is very wrong, what will Red do next turn when 65 would be a nightmare roll?

Over the board, 16/15, 3/1 was tried but that leaves Red with many awkward numbers next turn. He needs to get a checker within reach of his home board while covering his own bar-point in case White hops out with a 2.

The correct play is 16/13, leaving 8 shots but there is life after death. XG really doesn’t like 16/14, 3/2 despite one fewer shot. I suspect that is because of the 33 anti-joker.

This is not an easy position and you need to give it quite some thought to get to the right answer.