2020 - Position 26

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Match Play. Red trails 2-6 to 7 (post-Crawford). Should Red double? If doubled, should White take?

Red forgot to double at the start of the game and is about to pay the penalty.

He will double but White will drop because of the gammon threat. White loses a gammon 18% of the time from here and that is just a bit too much. It is not an error to take the double but White maximises his match equity by passing.