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Match Play. Red trails 1-3 to 5. How should Red play 53?
The trick here is to avoid the safe 12/7, 5/2.
The gammon will be close so an extra crossover might make all the difference. Given White’s board, leaving a 17-1 shot in exchange for a crossover looks to be a good deal.
12/9, 7/2 is slightly better than 12/4 because Red gets a shot on White’s 61 and 62.