2020 - Position 209

XGID=-Cb-DCC-B------a--bcbbba--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:3:0:10

Money Play. How should Red play 54?

The ultimate pay-me-now, pay-me-later problem. I have seen many such problems over the years and paying later when your opponent has such a strong board is usually correct.

However, Red’s structure is so weak after 6/1, 5/1 that paying now might be correct. If this was Double Match Point 6/1, 5/1 would be tied with 8/4, 8/3. However, the cube is in play and in this version 8/4, 8/3 is best. Why?

Quite simply both plays win the same amount of the time but 8/4, 8/3 wins many more gammons because Red’s bear-off is much faster.

Be honest, did you consider about the gammon factor?