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Match Play. Red leads 12-10 to 13. How should Red play 54?
Red’s game plan is to avoid losing a gammon and therefore the match. His best chance to do that is to get an anchor in White’s home board. To achieve that he needed to roll an ace but failed to do so.
His best choice is to hit the White the White checker in his own home board. That gives him two possibilities:
1) White stays on the bar and then Red rolls the required ace.
2) White hits the exposed Red checker on Red’s 3-pt and then Red rolls a 1 or a 2.
All three hitting plays have the same equity so I leave you to choose which one you like, but hit you must.