2020 - Position 165

XGID=-b--BBBBBAA--B--ababcb-b-A:1:-1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10

Money Play. How should Red play 53?

Clearly the 3 must be played bar/22.

Given that White will attack that blot Red with all guns blazing Red can’t afford too many blots, despite his five-point prime. 13/8 is much too big a play and is nearly a double blunder.

The choice is between 10/5 and 9/4. For similar reasons 9/4 is much better than 10/5 which is merely a very bad error. If Red stays on the bar and White comes to the edge of Red’s prime, having a checker exposed to a direct 6 is not a good idea.

If Red manages to escape his rear checker then he will probably not need a full six-prime.

Prudence wins the day and bar/22, 9/4 is the correct play.