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Money Play. Should Red double? If doubled, should White take?
If Red fails to hit the blot on White’s ace-point then White would have a take for a long time as one checker closed out with five borne off is a borderline take/pass.
That blot makes the position volatile so that Red should double.
White can win by escaping the rear checker, by anchoring and winning from there or by winning from the one-checker closed out scenario. All of these add up to about 23% but what makes it a comfortable take is that White will win a gammon 4% of the time.
Dropping would be a 2.5 blunder, while not doubling as Red is merely an error.