2020 - Position 119
Updated: Jul 3
Match Play. Red leads 11-8 to 13. Should Red double? If doubled, should White take?
This is one I got wrong, but I also got lucky. As White I took and redoubled to 4. I then won the game and then won the Crawford Game to win the match.
However, I should have passed and accepted 15% match winning chances. To get the same 15% after taking and redoubling White needs to win this game a fraction more than 21% of the time. He actually only wins just under 20% of the time so he should drop.
If White’s blot on his 8-pt was on his 4-pt, giving him a five-point home board, the correct actions would be double and take. The fact that an early hit for White doesn’t necessarily win the game for him considerably damages his game-winning chances.