2022 - Position 25

XGID=-B-abBC-Ca--BC----acbbba--:2:-1:1:21:0:2:0:7:10

Match Play. Red trails 0-2 to 7. How should Red play 21?

6/3* with only one direct cover number is too bold. This is a choice between 8/5 and 12/9*.

The latter gives White the chance of making Red’s 3-pt for a 3-4 back game. 12/9* gains good ground in the race and duplicates White’s fives.

8/5 wins more gammons but 12/9* wins more games. At the end of the day there is only 0.013 between the two moves so either is OK but technically 12/9* is marginally best.