Match Play. Red leads 3-2 to 5. Should Red double? If doubled, should White take?
At this score the maths are simple. If Red doubles and White takes (he will redouble to 4 immediately) White needs to win 25% of the time to justify a take as he can drop the double and have precisely 25% winning chances.
White has a nine-pip lead which will probably be nearly zero after Red’s next roll. He has two checkers trapped behind a five-point prime and his home board is far from perfect, although there are no dead checkers. In addition, the cube will be dead.
It is close but White should drop this double and play from 2-4 (Crawford) behind. Not doubling this position is quite a big error while taking is merely a common or garden error!